Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.