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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation saw its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another independent nation and seize its president – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.