‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Tightens India's LPG Stock.

The repercussions of a military engagement being fought nearly a significant distance away are now reaching India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases close completely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in food service establishments.

"Conditions are critical. Kitchen fuel simply isn't available," says a spokesperson of the a major restaurant body.

Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the south. People are switching to coal and wood and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a significant portion of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as commercial LPG supplies dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their cylinder inventory have shrunk with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Operations will be impacted," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a increase in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Government Stance

Yet, the authorities insists there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore domestic LPG users and officials say cylinders are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.

About six out of ten of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the conflict.

The petroleum ministry says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about 25%. Commercial stock is being allocated for critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".

"A degree of anxious stocking and stockpiling has been sparked by rumors. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.

Growing Panic

Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the text reads.

According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.

India imports 90% of its oil. Around a significant portion of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the gap could be partly compensated for by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a sector expert.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The real vulnerability is LPG, experts note.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.

Refineries can tweak operations to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Processed petroleum stocks remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Suppliers are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."

For now, India's energy imports may be cushioned by international market dynamics. But in kitchens across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.