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Initially, Donald Trump seemed to embrace a strong stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering warnings of "significant repercussions" during the summer should Putin continued blocking ceasefire discussions, Trump ultimately introduced major restrictions on Russia's biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously impacted Putin's capability to support his military invasion in the region.

Yet, with his newly presented comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, which was developed by US and Russian officials excluding Ukraine's or European involvement, the former president has seemingly reverted to his favorable to Russia position.

Rewarding Military Action

This initiative would effectively benefit the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Despite bold statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the proposal effectively compromise that very sovereignty. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his real-estate past, Trump continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a basic territorial dispute, as if handing Putin a part of Ukraine's land will satisfy the president. However, Russia's invasion is not merely about occupying a destroyed region of economically weakened land in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's obvious desire to destroy it so it stops acts as an enticing standard for the Russian people of the accountable governance that Putin's deepening autocracy withholds them.

Territorial Giveaways

While maintaining in position the already separated oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would compel Ukraine to abandon the whole this eastern territory. In addition to favoring the Russian Federation with land that its forces have been unable to capture in over a lengthy period of warfare, this giveaway would make Ukraine's defenses dangerously weakened.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that represent a key obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these positions, leaving Russian forces a clear route to Kyiv in case he later opt to resume the conflict.

Armed Forces Reductions

Furthermore, in a step that would facilitate additional hostilities easier for the Russian military, Trump would require the nation to reduce the size of its troops from their existing approximately 800,000 soldiers to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Notably, Trump's plan places no such limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's attempts to depict Ukraine's chosen by the people leadership as Nazis, Trump's proposal asserts: "All extremist belief system and actions must be rejected and banned." As if to emphasize this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump imposes no obligation that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by allowing votes in Russia.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the plan has the Russian Federation commit not to "attack bordering nations" and to "enshrine in law its stance of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has violated similar treaties in the history – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia pledged to recognize the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for surrendering its historical nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a handback of captured land in eastern Ukraine to the government – how should we trust Russia this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international protection assurances. While the proposal threatens a "decisive unified armed reaction" in case Russia renew its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the details range from vague to alarming. The proposal would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also preclude member states from deploying troops on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the peacekeeping contingent, likely headed by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to stop Putin from restoring his reduced forces, rearming, and resuming aggression.

World Concern

An additional parallel deal apparently would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any future "serious, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault endangering the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. Yet different from a powerful national defense – the nation's primary defense against additional hostilities – the success of the parallel accord would rely on the dedication of Western powers, such as Trump, to act militarily to Russia's hostilities, a response they have {not