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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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