From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.
A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern indefinitely.
That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.
Public Fury, Private Calculations
Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.
“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for this long.”
These observations have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.
A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.
A Network Unravels
For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.
Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.
Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.
“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”
The Ukraine Priority
There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.
“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.
Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks
Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.
Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.
Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.
A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.
“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”
A Bleak Silver Lining?
Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.
“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”