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Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.